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Market Report · September 2026 (month close)

Mexico Logistics Market Report — September 2026

September close: WCI flat ($4,434 on Oct 1) with the Transpacific propped up by blank sailings, no September EAX for Asia–Mexico yet (August $6,415), Pacific ports carrying the growth while Manzanillo jams on land, the MVE pushed to Oct 31 with a regime-by-regime calendar, and the peso down 6.2%. What changes your Q4.

Published October 10, 2026 · Data as of September 30, 2026

Drewry WCI (global)
$4,434−1%

USD/FEU · Oct 1 · vs Aug 27

Shanghai → LA
$7,835+1.6% vs Sep 17

USD/FEU · Oct 1 · Drewry

EAX Asia–Mexico (Aug)
$6,415+21.4% MoM

USD/FEU · latest print · Sep pending

FIX exchange rate
$18.0692+6.2% in Sep

MXN/USD · Sep 30 · Banxico

What matters

  1. WCI closed September flat and Golden Week opened October lower

    Drewry: $4,465 (Sep 3) → $4,500 (Sep 17) → $4,434 (Oct 1); $4,351 on Oct 8 (−2%). The Transpacific held the month on blank sailings (Shanghai–LA $7,835); Asia–Europe is down 13 straight weeks.

  2. Asia–Mexico: still no September EAX

    The latest closed figure is August: $6,415/FEU (+21.4%), highest since June 2024, with spot ~$8,000 in early September. Eternity projected $5,000–6,000. Quote late October and November now, with validity in writing.

  3. The Pacific carries the growth; the bottleneck is landside

    Jan–Aug: 6.51M TEU nationally (+3.4%), Manzanillo 2.82M (+11.0%, 43.4% of total), Lázaro 1.81M (+4.9%). Manzanillo ITPAP 9:34 h in August; CRT pilot since Sep 30 (Wed–Fri, import appointments from 4 p.m. at Contecon).

  4. MVE: Oct 1 moved

    Early version of the 3rd RGCE 2026 amendment (SAT, Sep 30): transition through Oct 31 and a regime-by-regime mandate from Nov 1 to Jan 15, 2027 (definitive imports). As of Oct 10 we could not find DOF publication.

  5. Peso: 6.2% more pesos per dollar in the month

    FIX 17.0147 (Aug 31) → 18.0692 (Sep 30); 18.4163 on Oct 9. The fourth USMCA round slipped to October with no date; Section 232 stays (autos 25%, steel and aluminum 50%).

01

Ocean

WCI flat for the month; Transpacific held on blank sailings and Golden Week opened October lower.

Drewry WCI
$4,434/FEU−1% vs Aug 27

Oct 1 · month close

Shanghai → LA
$7,835/FEU+1.6% vs Sep 17

Oct 1 · high $7,838 on Sep 24

EAX Asia–Mexico
$6,415/FEU+21.4% MoM

August · Sep not yet published

September closed without the feared rally. Drewry’s World Container Index went from $4,465 (Sep 3) to $4,500 (Sep 17), the month’s high, then eased to $4,468 (Sep 24) and $4,434 (Oct 1): an essentially flat month on the composite, 1% below the August close ($4,473). The first October print, $4,351 (Oct 8, −2%), confirms Golden Week cooled demand.

The story is below the average. The Transpacific held the month: Shanghai–Los Angeles rose from $7,712 (Sep 17) to $7,838 (Sep 24) and closed at $7,835 (Oct 1), before dropping to $7,624 on Oct 8. Carriers defended that level by pulling capacity, with up to 15 blank sailings announced for the Chinese holiday week. Asia–Europe went the other way: Shanghai–Rotterdam slid from $3,626 (Sep 17) to $3,399 (Oct 1) and $3,337 on Oct 8, its 13th straight weekly decline, as more Suez transits add capacity.

What about Asia–Mexico?

There is no public weekly index for this lane. The latest closed figure is still August’s EAX: $6,415/FEU (+21.4% MoM), the highest since June 2024, with spot near $8,000 in early September (Eternity). As of Oct 10, September’s EAX has not been published; Eternity projected stabilization at $5,000–6,000. Our read: if the Transpacific is easing, space to Mexico should loosen in October, but the print is the confirmation, not the expectation.

What to do

Quote late-October and November cargo now, with validity in writing: carriers are trying to push FAK increases in the second half of October and it is unclear whether they will stick. Compare all-in, not freight: with blank sailings on the table, a missed sailing costs more than the rate difference.

What is Asia–Mexico pricing all-in today? Ask for a quote

02

Mexican ports

The Pacific carries the growth; the month’s bottleneck was landside, not at the berth.

Manzanillo · TEUs
2.82M+11.0%

Jan–Aug · Semar/T21 · 43.4% of total

National ports · TEUs
6.51M+3.4%

Jan–Aug · Semar/T21

ITPAP Manzanillo
9:34 hvs 12:50 h Jul

August · T21 · Sep not published

September volume is not out yet; the closed figure is January–August (Semar, via T21). Mexican ports moved 6.51 million TEU (+3.4% YoY) and nearly all the growth is Pacific: Manzanillo 2.82 million (+11.0%), now 43.4% of the national total, and Lázaro Cárdenas 1.81 million (+4.9%). The Gulf is shrinking: Veracruz 802k (−5.6%) and Altamira 579k (−5.3%). August fell 3.3% versus July, the year’s peak.

The month’s problem was not the berth, it was the road. T21’s ITPAP put Manzanillo at 9:34 h per truck cycle in August, better than July’s 12:50 h but far from ~5.5 h in May–June; September’s reading is not out. On Sep 24 a trial to route afternoon Contecon appointments through the Land Regulation Center (CRT) was announced, the terminal disowned it, and it did not run. ASIPONA formalized it as a pilot from Sep 30: Wednesday to Friday, import appointments from 4 p.m., entering the CRT up to two hours early. No results have been published yet. Add roadworks on the Manzanillo–Guadalajara corridor, with 3–8 h delays reported in September.

What to do

Budget Manzanillo with an explicit landside buffer, not just free days. If your cargo goes to the Bajío or central Mexico and your service calls Lázaro Cárdenas, quote both ports with drayage included: with the Pacific concentrating volume, the real difference is on land.

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03

Air

Air firm all month; the risk is fuel cost, not space.

TAC BAI00
+2.4%+21.7% YoY

4 wks to Sep 28 · TAC Index

Jet fuel
+108% YoY

Oct 2 · IATA via TAC

Air closed September firm. TAC Index’s global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose 2.4% in the four weeks to Sep 28, ending 21.7% above a year earlier. In the week to Oct 5, with Golden Week under way, it jumped 5.0% and the annual gain reached 25.5%. Out of Shanghai (BAI80) the move was modest: +1.0% MoM and +18.3% YoY to Oct 5; Hong Kong (BAI30) gained 6.6% over the same period.

The risk is cost, not space. Per the IATA monitor cited by TAC, jet fuel was 108% above a year earlier on Oct 2, and rates do not fully reflect it yet; TAC expects that to put a floor under prices into the year-end peak. There is no public Asia→Mexico index: references are global and by origin.

What to do

If your Q4 plan includes rescue air to offset an ocean rollover, quote it with an explicit fuel surcharge and short validity. Booking early no longer secures the rate; it secures the space.

Real urgency? We quote with space. Write us

04

Trucking & cross-border

Two new Laredo windows, both pilots; the weekday bottleneck for laden freight is unchanged.

WTB Saturday
8:00–19:00since Sep 5

CBP · 3-month pilot

Colombia · empties
7:00–24:00since Sep 14

CBP · Mon–Fri · 90 days

September opened two new windows in Laredo, both as pilots. Since Sep 5, World Trade Bridge runs Saturdays 8 a.m.–7 p.m. for three months (CBP). Since Sep 14, Colombia Solidarity opens at 7 a.m. instead of 8 a.m. for tractors and empty trailers, for 90 days; it does not apply to laden units. Neither changes weekday hours for laden freight, which is where the lines form.

On the Mexican side, the month’s friction was at the ocean origin: roadworks on the Manzanillo–Guadalajara corridor and the port access queue turned into 3–8 h delays reported by truckers. As of Oct 10 there are no consolidated September crossing statistics.

What to do

If you export through Laredo, shift what you can to Saturday while the pilot lasts (to early December) and schedule empty returns via Colombia from 7 a.m. Have the transload plan B set before ETA, not once the trailer is already in line.

If you chase Carta Porte every time, we move it end-to-end

05

Customs & regulation

The MVE did not start Oct 1: transition to Oct 31 and a regime-by-regime calendar to Jan 15, 2027.

MVE · transition
Oct 31

SAT · early version Sep 30

MVE · definitive imports
Jan 15, 2027

DOF pending as of Oct 10

October 1 was supposed to be the hard cut for the electronic value declaration (MVE). It wasn’t. On Sep 30, SAT posted on its portal the early version of the Third Amendment Resolution to the 2026 Foreign Trade Rules (RGCE): through Oct 31 importers may keep complying under the transitional scheme (E2 and E3 forms), and from November electronic transmission via the Single Window phases in by regime: Nov 1 processing, transformation or repair in bonded facilities; Nov 15 strategic bonded facilities; Dec 1 transit; Dec 15 bonded warehouse; Jan 1, 2027 temporary imports; and Jan 15, 2027 definitive imports.

Two caveats. First, as of Oct 10 we could not find its publication in the DOF: the early version takes effect under rule 1.1.2, but the resolution enters into force the day after publication. Second, this is not the first extension, and the market has learned to wait for them; that is exactly what leaves files incomplete when the date does arrive.

What to do

Use the extra time to operate, not to wait. Find your regime on the calendar, run a test MVE with your customs broker, and build the value file (invoice, contract, proof of payment and additions) before your date comes.

Not sure which MVE date applies to you? FreightSpot expert

06

Trade & macro

The peso lost 6.2% in the month and USMCA ended September with no round and no deals.

FIX
$18.0692+6.2% vs Aug 31

Sep 30 · Banxico/DOF

FIX (October)
$18.4163

Oct 9 · Banxico

Section 232
25% / 50%unchanged

autos / steel & aluminum

The peso was the story of the month. Banxico’s FIX went from 17.0147 (Aug 31) to 18.0692 (Sep 30): 6.2% more pesos per dollar, the worst monthly drop in more than two years per market reports, on a strong global dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Fed. October did not correct: 18.3688 on Oct 1 and 18.4163 on Oct 9. For importers, that raises the peso base for duty, DTA and VAT even if dollar freight falls.

On trade policy, September ended with no deals. The fourth bilateral USMCA review round, set for Sep 28–29, was pushed to October and as of Oct 6 still had no date. Mexico’s goal is lower Section 232 tariffs (autos 25%, steel and aluminum 50%), which remain in force. Per Mexico’s business council (CCE), rules of origin and labor move to 2027, and Washington has already opened the call for that year’s review.

What to do

Recost landed cost at the current rate (around 18.4), not August’s budget near 17; remember the customs entry uses the rate published in the DOF, not the same-day FIX. Identify which shipments are exposed to Section 232 and plan on current tariffs, not those that might be negotiated.

Audit origin? Let's talk

07

What’s coming

Dates already published in the Federal Register — not forecasts. This is what’s coming at you.

  • October 31, 2026MVE transition endsUntil then E2/E3 compliance applies; afterwards, electronic transmission by regime (SAT early version, DOF pending).Don’t bet on another extension: run the test in October.
  • Nov 1 → Jan 15, 2027MVE by regime: first datesNov 1 bonded facilities; Nov 15 strategic bonded; Dec 1 transit; Dec 15 bonded warehouse; Jan 1 temporary; Jan 15 definitive.
  • Second half of October 2026Post–Golden Week FAK increase attemptCarriers aim to reverse the decline; Drewry doubts it will stick. Decide whether to lock or wait.
  • October 2026 (no date)4th USMCA roundMexico’s priority: lower 232 on autos, steel and aluminum. Rules of origin and labor move to 2027.
  • December 31, 2026Non-treaty tariff decree expiresTransitory articles set that date as the end of elevated rates. Don’t assume automatic renewal.
08

What to do with all this

5 concrete moves, in order of urgency.

  1. Quote late-Oct/Nov Asia–Mexico nowCarriers are pushing FAK increases for the second half of October. Get validity in writing and confirm the sailing, not just the rate.
  2. Recost landed cost at FIX ~18.4FIX rose from 17.01 to 18.07 in September and 18.42 on Oct 9. August’s budget no longer works for duty, DTA and VAT.
  3. Find your MVE date and run a testTransition to Oct 31; then by regime through Jan 15, 2027. Build the value file before your date.
  4. Put Manzanillo landside buffer in the all-inAugust ITPAP 9:34 h, afternoon CRT pilot and roadworks to GDL. Quote Lázaro as an alternative with drayage included.
  5. Use the Laredo pilot windowsWTB Saturdays 8 a.m.–7 p.m. and empties via Colombia from 7 a.m., both through early December.

Sources

Every figure in this edition comes from public sources, with data as of September 30, 2026. Freight indexes move week to week: use them as a trend reference, not as a quote.

Past editions

Week of October 12Weekly Pulse — October 12, 2026Hurricane Simón halted Manzanillo over the weekend and the peso posted its fifth straight weekly loss. Ocean freight keeps easing, but this week the cost sits in rescheduled appointments and the exchange rate.
Week of October 5Weekly Pulse — October 5, 2026SAT extended the MVE to October 31 and phases it in by regime, while the peso closed its worst week since March. Freight eases mid-Golden Week: the relief is on the calendar, but the peso cost is already here.
Week of September 28Weekly Pulse — September 28, 2026WCI eases to $4,468 ahead of Golden Week, the FIX jumps to 17.71, Manzanillo’s CRT test stalls in confusion, and the electronic value declaration has three days left. What moves your operation, in two minutes.