Mexico Logistics Market Report — October 2026

The volume published in October covers September, and it was the second straight monthly decline: Mexican ports handled 777,826 TEU, 8.3% less than in August (Semar, via T21). Manzanillo handled 329,942 TEU (−10.6% MoM, −1.8% vs September 2025) and Lázaro Cárdenas 203,575 (−7.9%). Year to date through September, the country is at 7.29 million TEU (+2.4%), with Manzanillo at 3.15 million (+9.5%) and Lázaro at 2.01 million (+2.9%). The Gulf is still down: Veracruz −5.6% and Altamira −5%. Read it carefully: Manzanillo’s growth comes from exports, largely empty boxes, and transshipment; laden imports are not growing at the same pace.

Landside, September’s ITPAP (T21) improved nationally to 9:46 hours (−8.6%), but Manzanillo rose to 9:54 h from 9:34 h in August, with increases in customs, handling and waiting. The estimated cost of idle trucking at Manzanillo fell to MXN 241 million from 414.9 million in August.

October: two closures in one week

Hurricane Simón halted Manzanillo’s terminals on Oct 10 and navigation reopened on Oct 12 at 9:00. Trudy closed the port again from Oct 16 (21:00) to Oct 19 (6:00). To clear the backlog, ANAM ran customs 24 hours on Oct 12 and from Oct 19 to 30, and on Oct 16 landside traffic control restored direct entry for trucks that had been routed through the Centro Regulador Terrestre. From Nov 9 through Dec 31, customs runs 24 hours Monday to Friday and until 13:00 on Saturdays. October volume has not been published yet.

What to do

Review with your broker the storage and demurrage from both closures before paying, and schedule November and December clearances at Manzanillo Monday to Wednesday: customs is asking users to spread cargo across the three shifts because it bunches on Thursdays and Fridays.

As ocean cooled, air got more expensive. The TAC index from Hong Kong to North America, which blends spot and contract, went from $7.16/kg at the start of October to $8.17/kg at the close, 38.7% above a year earlier; the monthly average was $7.64/kg, versus $7.02 in September. Hong Kong–Europe averaged $5.31/kg (+15.7% YoY). The drivers are peak-season demand, including electronics and data-center shipments, and fuel: jet fuel was 118.5% above a year earlier in the week to Oct 23, and Brent traded at $123.10 on Oct 27. Several airlines raised per-kilo surcharges in the second half of the month.

There is no public Asia–Mexico air rate index; we use Hong Kong–North America as a guide to direction, not level.

What to do

If you have urgent December cargo, secure space now and check whether fuel surcharges pass through in your contract. Compare the cost of air with what a delay costs your operation, not just with the ocean rate.

The country’s most important crossing had a rough week. On Oct 6–7, truck lines toward the World Trade Bridge (Bridge III) ran more than five kilometers on the Nuevo Laredo side. Local press blamed failures generating the crossing notice (Aviso de Cruce, AVC), which had become mandatory alongside the DODA, customs system outages, power cuts and too few booths open. On Oct 8, Nuevo Laredo customs temporarily suspended the mandatory AVC and allowed crossings with the DODA alone, with no end date. That same day, CBP showed 30-minute waits in standard cargo lanes and 15 in FAST.

The AVC is not going away: the second early version of the 3rd RGCE amendment (Nov 5) formalizes it to replace the DODA in operations ANAM announces. Meanwhile, CBP keeps Saturday hours at the World Trade Bridge and extended hours for empties via Colombia, and a weekday 24-hour pilot at Bridge III for AEO companies is under evaluation, still with no date.

What to do

Have your broker confirm before each crossing whether DODA or AVC is required, and keep both ready. If you export regularly through Laredo and are not AEO-certified, consider it: extended hours start there.

October brought two structural changes. The first is the Customs Law reform: the Senate passed it on Oct 13 (66–37) and the DOF published it on Oct 23. If the declared value is below that of identical or similar goods, authorities will review it on their own initiative and may seize; with a gap under 20%, the seizure can be replaced with a deposit. It removes the 50% undervaluation threshold previously required and takes effect Jan 1, 2027.

The second is the MVE (electronic value declaration). The transition ended on Oct 31 and since Nov 1 electronic transmission applies to processing, transformation or repair in bonded facilities. The calendar continues by regime through definitive imports on Jan 15, 2027. On Nov 5, SAT published a second early version of the 3rd RGCE amendment that keeps those dates and creates the crossing notice (AVC); as of Nov 10 it is still not in the DOF.

There were also targeted changes: textiles and apparel no longer require an automatic import permit since Sep 15 (Economía and ANAM statement, Oct 5), and a decree in the DOF on Oct 13 exempts international transit between Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz via the Interoceanic Corridor from the customs-account guarantee.

What to do

If your prices sit below market references, build your transaction-value file now: from January, review will be automatic. And confirm with your broker which MVE date applies to you; don’t wait for DOF publication to prepare the transmission.

The peso closed October with eight straight losing weeks. Banxico’s FIX went from 18.0692 (Sep 30) to 18.1903 (Oct 2), 18.4163 (Oct 9), 18.4930 (Oct 16), 18.6670 (Oct 23) and 18.7962 (Oct 30): 4.0% more pesos per dollar in the month, on top of September’s 6.2%. Drivers included the Oct 8 minutes, in which three members opened the door to a rate cut, the unwinding of carry-trade positions, and the Federal Reserve, which held on Oct 28 with two votes to hike. On Nov 5 Banxico surprised with a cut to 6.25% and, even so, the FIX eased to 18.6297 on Nov 6. One week doesn’t change the trend, and the narrower rate differential leaves the peso exposed.

Trade, by contrast, is growing. In September Mexico exported USD 77.8 billion (+37.9% YoY) and imported USD 78.4 billion (+33.1%), a deficit of USD 606 million (INEGI, Oct 27).

On trade policy, no deal. Section 232 stays at 50% on steel and aluminum, the fourth USMCA round has no date, and Ebrard expects an answer from Washington before year-end; after the Nov 3 US midterms he said the tariff relationship won’t change much. What does have a calendar is the 2027 review: USTR’s public consultation takes comments until Jan 12, 2027.

What to do

Budget November and December customs entries with a FIX between 18.6 and 18.8 plus an FX margin, and remember the entry uses the rate published in the DOF, not the same-day FIX. Quote on current tariffs and don’t commit to prices that depend on a 232 cut.