The 90-Day US–Mexico Tariff Truce: What Changed, What Didn’t, and How to Use the Clock
Friday, August 1 was supposed to open with a 30% tariff on Mexican goods entering the United States. It didn’t happen. On the morning of July 31, after a phone call between President Claudia Sheinbaum and President Donald Trump, both governments announced a 90-day pause on the escalation: the increase announced July 12 is suspended while the two sides negotiate what Sheinbaum described as a long-term agreement.
Good news — but easy to misread. The pause doesn’t remove the tariffs that already existed; it freezes the increase. If you import, export, or quote business across the northern border, here is exactly what’s left on the table — and what to do with the window.
What’s still in force after the call
- The 25% tariff tied to the fentanyl emergency still applies to Mexican goods that do NOT qualify as originating under the USMCA.
- Autos still pay 25%, and steel, aluminum and copper remain at 50% — the sectoral regimes were untouched.
- The increase to 30% that was due August 1 is postponed for 90 days.
- Goods that meet USMCA rules of origin keep their exemption: they continue to enter free of these tariffs.
- Mexico committed to work on removing non-tariff barriers during the negotiation.
The operational lesson of the week isn’t the tariff that got paused — it’s that the difference between paying 0% or 25% now hinges, case by case, on proving USMCA origin.
USMCA went from advantage to survival requirement
Since February 2025, every turn of this tariff spiral has respected one constant: whatever qualifies as originating under the USMCA stays exempt. That makes origin certification the single most valuable variable in your cross-border operation — and the most audited one. A sloppy certificate, a rule of origin applied from memory, or a supplier who can’t substantiate the origin of their inputs is no longer an administrative slip: it’s the difference between margin and loss.
If you sell into the US and there are still SKUs in your catalog clearing without preference “because the volume was small,” the 90-day truce is precisely the window to fix it: audit rules of origin product by product, document regional value content, and get certificates in order before the negotiation resolves — in either direction.
Three re-costing scenarios (and none of them is “wait”)
Base scenario — the truce extends or becomes a deal: your current costs hold. Use the calm to close sales contracts longer than 90 days only if your margin survives scenario two.
Middle scenario — the truce expires and 30% lands: re-run your landed cost today for non-originating products at that number. If the margin doesn’t survive, the conversation with your supplier or your customer happens this week, not in October.
Hedge scenario — migrate SKUs into the USMCA: for many products the answer isn’t absorbing the tariff, it’s qualifying the origin. That can mean switching an input, documenting a process, or pulling certifications from your supplier. It takes weeks — which is exactly what the window gives you.
Every one of those scenarios starts from the correct tariff classification for each product. If yours isn’t audited, our tariff calculator at freightspot.com/recursos/calculadora-arancelaria gives you the starting point in minutes.
What to watch during the 90 days
- Formal announcements from both governments — the pause was communicated by phone call and social posts; the legal instruments that implement it define the fine print.
- Progress on non-tariff barriers: Mexico’s commitments may translate into domestic regulatory changes with effects of their own.
- Your origin mix: every percentage point of your catalog that migrates to USMCA preference is permanent coverage, however the truce ends.
Sources
CNN en Español — Trump and Sheinbaum announce a deal to suspend the tariff increase for 90 days, July 31
Milenio — Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico for 90 days after call with Sheinbaum
El Cronista / Financial Times — Trump postpones the new tariffs on Mexico
