War in Iran: How the Conflict Is Driving Up Freight Costs in Mexico
Since attacks began in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, global energy markets haven’t found their footing. What looked like a regional conflict has turned into a structural shock to the world economy — and Mexico is not exempt.
The Strait of Hormuz: the jugular of global oil
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most critical chokepoint in global energy trade. Roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products pass through it, along with about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Since the conflict began, Iran has charged tolls of up to $2 million per vessel — or blocked passage outright — forcing shipowners onto alternative routes that are far longer and far more expensive.
“The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
Oil and diesel prices: the actual numbers
The price impact was immediate and blunt:
Brent crude jumped 15% in the first days of the conflict, hitting $120 USD per barrel — a level not seen since 2022. (Source: World Economic Forum, March 2026)
In the United States, diesel is up a cumulative 39% since the conflict began. (Source: IRU)
In the European Union, the average diesel price reached €2.12 per liter, a 29% increase in a matter of weeks. (Source: IRU)
In China, prices rose 25% despite government caps. (Source: IRU)
Why is diesel rising in Mexico if it doesn’t depend on the Persian Gulf?
Mexico is relatively energy-independent, but oil prices are set in global markets benchmarked to Brent and WTI. When Brent hits $120, refining costs and the diesel supply chain get more expensive everywhere — Mexico included.
On top of that, AdBlue — the additive required in Euro 6 trucks with SCR technology — is facing its own supply disruptions, since it’s produced from natural gas, whose global supply chain the conflict has also hit.
Direct impact on freight rates
The IRU points out that freight rates are not indexed to fuel price movements, which puts unsustainable pressure on transport operators. That pressure eventually shows up as:
Higher fuel surcharges on air and ocean freight
Trucking rate increases, especially on Mexico–U.S. cross-border lanes
Longer transit times as vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope
More volatile quotes — carriers are writing price-variation clauses into short-term contracts
What can Mexican importers do right now?
Pull volume purchases forward before the next round of increases — in volatile markets, whoever buys early wins.
Review your freight contracts and understand exactly which surcharge clauses are in effect.
Diversify suppliers and origins to reduce exposure to routes that transit the Persian Gulf.
Consolidate cargo — when rates are high, well-managed LCL can beat frequent partial shipments on cost.
Talk to your freight forwarder — the picture changes week to week, and real-time information is essential.
The medium-term outlook
“Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, the energy effects would be felt at least through the end of 2026.” — World Economic Forum, March 2026
Repairing infrastructure, restarting production sites, and realigning tanker capacity takes months. Global trade is heading into a period of higher costs and higher uncertainty, and Mexico — an economy that both exports and imports heavily — sits squarely in the middle of that impact.
At FreightSpot we’re tracking these developments closely to help our customers make informed decisions in real time.
Sources
IRU — International Road Transport Union, March 2026
World Economic Forum — March 2026
The Guardian — April 2026
IEA — International Energy Agency
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