# Mexico Logistics Market Report — October 2026

> October close: the WCI rises and falls to end flat ($4,429), Asia–Mexico eases 11% on the EAX ($6,006), Manzanillo loses the month to two hurricanes, the customs reform reaches the DOF, the MVE starts by regime and the peso loses 4%. What changes your year-end.

Source: https://www.freightspot.com/en/resources/market-update/octubre-2026 · Updated: 2026-11-10 · Edition: October 2026 (month close) · Data as of: 2026-10-31 · Publisher: FreightSpot

## Key takeaways

- **The WCI went up and down to close where it started.** Drewry: $4,434 (Oct 1) → **$4,585** (Oct 22, 15-week high) → **$4,429** (Oct 29); $4,389 on Nov 5. Shanghai–LA closed at **$7,514 (−4.1%)** and Shanghai–Rotterdam rose **8.4%**.
- **Asia–Mexico finally eased.** September EAX **$6,773 (+5.6%)** and October **$6,006 (−11.3%)**. Eternity projects **$5,000–6,000** in November, with blank-sailing risk. Quote December and pre–Chinese New Year cargo at November rates.
- **Manzanillo lost October to two hurricanes.** Simón (Oct 10–12) and Trudy (Oct 16–19) closed the port; customs ran 24 h through Oct 30 and runs **24/5 through Dec 31**. Jan–Sep: **3.15M TEU (+9.5%)**, but September fell **10.6%** MoM.
- **The customs reform is law and the MVE has started.** DOF **Oct 23**: automatic undervaluation review from **Jan 1, 2027**. MVE by regime from **Nov 1**; definitive imports **Jan 15, 2027**. The 3rd RGCE amendment is still not in the DOF.
- **The peso lost 4.0% in the month.** FIX **18.0692 (Sep 30) → 18.7962 (Oct 30)**, eight losing weeks; Banxico cut to **6.25%** on Nov 5. September exports **+37.9%**; Section 232 stays at **50%** with no deal.

## Indicators

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Drewry WCI (global) | $4,429 | −0.1% | USD/FEU · Oct 29 · vs Oct 1 |
| Shanghai → LA | $7,514 | −4.1% in Oct | USD/FEU · Oct 29 · Drewry |
| EAX Asia–Mexico (Oct) | $6,006 | −11.3% MoM | USD/FEU 40' HC · Sep $6,773 |
| FIX exchange rate | $18.7962 | +4.0% in Oct | MXN/USD · Oct 30 · Banxico |

## Ocean

*The WCI rose and fell to close where it started; Asia–Mexico finally eased 11% on the EAX.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Drewry WCI | $4,429/FEU | −0.1% vs Oct 1 | Oct 29 · month high $4,585 (Oct 22) |
| Shanghai → LA | $7,514/FEU | −4.1% vs Oct 1 | Oct 29 · peak $8,007 on Oct 22 |
| EAX Asia–Mexico | $6,006/FEU | −11.3% MoM | October · 40' HC · Eternity |

October went up and came back down. Drewry’s World Container Index opened at $4,434/FEU (Oct 1), dipped to $4,351 with Golden Week (Oct 8), rebounded to $4,485 (Oct 15) and $4,585 (Oct 22), a 15-week high, then gave back the whole rise to close at $4,429 (Oct 29). For the month, the composite was essentially flat (−0.1%). The first November print, $4,389 (Nov 5, −1%), confirms the direction.

Below the average, the lanes split. Shanghai–Los Angeles hit $8,007 on Oct 22 and ended at $7,514 (−4.1% for the month), with the National Retail Federation expecting 11% fewer US ocean imports in November. Asia–Europe did the opposite: Shanghai–Rotterdam went from $3,399 to $3,686 (+8.4%), ending the 13-week losing streak it carried into early October, although Suez transits (62 ships in one week, the year’s high) are adding capacity again.

### Asia–Mexico: the missing print

The series is now complete. September’s EAX came in at $6,773/FEU (+5.6%) and October’s at $6,006 (−11.3%), per Eternity, which attributes the drop to a stabilizing market and schedules disrupted by typhoons in Asia and hurricanes in Mexico. For November it projects $5,000–6,000 and warns carriers may blank sailings to slow the decline. In October, 16 new ships with 149,572 TEU entered the market, one of them on an Asia–Mexico service.

### What to do

Quote December and pre–Chinese New Year cargo at November rates, not September’s. Book three to four weeks ahead and don’t speculate with goods that feed a production line: losing the space costs more than the rate difference.

## Mexican ports

*September volume fell, the year-to-date is still up, and October was lost to two hurricanes.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Manzanillo · TEUs | 3.15M | +9.5% | Jan–Sep · 43.3% of national total |
| National ports · TEUs | 7.29M | +2.4% | Jan–Sep · Semar/T21 · Sep −8.3% MoM |
| ITPAP Manzanillo | 9:54 h | +3.4% vs Aug | September · T21 · national 9:46 h |

The volume published in October covers September, and it was the second straight monthly decline: Mexican ports handled 777,826 TEU, 8.3% less than in August (Semar, via T21). Manzanillo handled 329,942 TEU (−10.6% MoM, −1.8% vs September 2025) and Lázaro Cárdenas 203,575 (−7.9%). Year to date through September, the country is at 7.29 million TEU (+2.4%), with Manzanillo at 3.15 million (+9.5%) and Lázaro at 2.01 million (+2.9%). The Gulf is still down: Veracruz −5.6% and Altamira −5%. Read it carefully: Manzanillo’s growth comes from exports, largely empty boxes, and transshipment; laden imports are not growing at the same pace.

Landside, September’s ITPAP (T21) improved nationally to 9:46 hours (−8.6%), but Manzanillo rose to 9:54 h from 9:34 h in August, with increases in customs, handling and waiting. The estimated cost of idle trucking at Manzanillo fell to MXN 241 million from 414.9 million in August.

### October: two closures in one week

Hurricane Simón halted Manzanillo’s terminals on Oct 10 and navigation reopened on Oct 12 at 9:00. Trudy closed the port again from Oct 16 (21:00) to Oct 19 (6:00). To clear the backlog, ANAM ran customs 24 hours on Oct 12 and from Oct 19 to 30, and on Oct 16 landside traffic control restored direct entry for trucks that had been routed through the Centro Regulador Terrestre. From Nov 9 through Dec 31, customs runs 24 hours Monday to Friday and until 13:00 on Saturdays. October volume has not been published yet.

### What to do

Review with your broker the storage and demurrage from both closures before paying, and schedule November and December clearances at Manzanillo Monday to Wednesday: customs is asking users to spread cargo across the three shifts because it bunches on Thursdays and Fridays.

## Air

*Transpacific air rose all month; jet fuel sets the floor.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TAC Hong Kong → North America | $7.64/kg | +8.8% vs Sep | October average · close $8.17/kg |
| TAC Hong Kong → Europe | $5.31/kg | +15.7% YoY | October average · Sep $4.80/kg |

As ocean cooled, air got more expensive. The TAC index from Hong Kong to North America, which blends spot and contract, went from $7.16/kg at the start of October to $8.17/kg at the close, 38.7% above a year earlier; the monthly average was $7.64/kg, versus $7.02 in September. Hong Kong–Europe averaged $5.31/kg (+15.7% YoY). The drivers are peak-season demand, including electronics and data-center shipments, and fuel: jet fuel was 118.5% above a year earlier in the week to Oct 23, and Brent traded at $123.10 on Oct 27. Several airlines raised per-kilo surcharges in the second half of the month.

There is no public Asia–Mexico air rate index; we use Hong Kong–North America as a guide to direction, not level.

### What to do

If you have urgent December cargo, secure space now and check whether fuel surcharges pass through in your contract. Compare the cost of air with what a delay costs your operation, not just with the ocean rate.

## Trucking & cross-border

*Laredo had its worst week of the month over the crossing notice; the hours pilots continue.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bridge III lines (Nuevo Laredo) | > 5 km |  | Oct 6–7 · before the AVC was suspended |
| CBP wait, World Trade Bridge | 30 min |  | standard cargo · Oct 8 · FAST 15 min |

The country’s most important crossing had a rough week. On Oct 6–7, truck lines toward the World Trade Bridge (Bridge III) ran more than five kilometers on the Nuevo Laredo side. Local press blamed failures generating the crossing notice (Aviso de Cruce, AVC), which had become mandatory alongside the DODA, customs system outages, power cuts and too few booths open. On Oct 8, Nuevo Laredo customs temporarily suspended the mandatory AVC and allowed crossings with the DODA alone, with no end date. That same day, CBP showed 30-minute waits in standard cargo lanes and 15 in FAST.

The AVC is not going away: the second early version of the 3rd RGCE amendment (Nov 5) formalizes it to replace the DODA in operations ANAM announces. Meanwhile, CBP keeps Saturday hours at the World Trade Bridge and extended hours for empties via Colombia, and a weekday 24-hour pilot at Bridge III for AEO companies is under evaluation, still with no date.

### What to do

Have your broker confirm before each crossing whether DODA or AVC is required, and keep both ready. If you export regularly through Laredo and are not AEO-certified, consider it: extended hours start there.

## Customs & regulation

*The customs reform is law, the MVE started by regime, and the rule is still not in the DOF.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Customs Law reform | DOF Oct 23 |  | in force Jan 1, 2027 |
| MVE definitive imports | Jan 15, 2027 |  | regime calendar from Nov 1 |

October brought two structural changes. The first is the Customs Law reform: the Senate passed it on Oct 13 (66–37) and the DOF published it on Oct 23. If the declared value is below that of identical or similar goods, authorities will review it on their own initiative and may seize; with a gap under 20%, the seizure can be replaced with a deposit. It removes the 50% undervaluation threshold previously required and takes effect Jan 1, 2027.

The second is the MVE (electronic value declaration). The transition ended on Oct 31 and since Nov 1 electronic transmission applies to processing, transformation or repair in bonded facilities. The calendar continues by regime through definitive imports on Jan 15, 2027. On Nov 5, SAT published a second early version of the 3rd RGCE amendment that keeps those dates and creates the crossing notice (AVC); as of Nov 10 it is still not in the DOF.

There were also targeted changes: textiles and apparel no longer require an automatic import permit since Sep 15 (Economía and ANAM statement, Oct 5), and a decree in the DOF on Oct 13 exempts international transit between Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz via the Interoceanic Corridor from the customs-account guarantee.

### What to do

If your prices sit below market references, build your transaction-value file now: from January, review will be automatic. And confirm with your broker which MVE date applies to you; don’t wait for DOF publication to prepare the transmission.

## Trade & macro

*The peso lost 4% in the month, exports are growing strongly and Section 232 did not move.*

| Indicator | Value | Change | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FIX exchange rate | 18.7962 | +4.0% in Oct | MXN/USD · Oct 30 · 8 losing weeks |
| Exports | $77,797M | +37.9% YoY | USD · September · INEGI |
| Banxico rate | 6.25% | −25 bp | surprise cut · Nov 5 |

The peso closed October with eight straight losing weeks. Banxico’s FIX went from 18.0692 (Sep 30) to 18.1903 (Oct 2), 18.4163 (Oct 9), 18.4930 (Oct 16), 18.6670 (Oct 23) and 18.7962 (Oct 30): 4.0% more pesos per dollar in the month, on top of September’s 6.2%. Drivers included the Oct 8 minutes, in which three members opened the door to a rate cut, the unwinding of carry-trade positions, and the Federal Reserve, which held on Oct 28 with two votes to hike. On Nov 5 Banxico surprised with a cut to 6.25% and, even so, the FIX eased to 18.6297 on Nov 6. One week doesn’t change the trend, and the narrower rate differential leaves the peso exposed.

Trade, by contrast, is growing. In September Mexico exported USD 77.8 billion (+37.9% YoY) and imported USD 78.4 billion (+33.1%), a deficit of USD 606 million (INEGI, Oct 27).

On trade policy, no deal. Section 232 stays at 50% on steel and aluminum, the fourth USMCA round has no date, and Ebrard expects an answer from Washington before year-end; after the Nov 3 US midterms he said the tariff relationship won’t change much. What does have a calendar is the 2027 review: USTR’s public consultation takes comments until Jan 12, 2027.

### What to do

Budget November and December customs entries with a FIX between 18.6 and 18.8 plus an FX margin, and remember the entry uses the rate published in the DOF, not the same-day FIX. Quote on current tariffs and don’t commit to prices that depend on a 232 cut.

## Coming up (already enacted)

- **November 15, 2026 — MVE: strategic bonded facilities**: Next date on the regime calendar, confirmed in the second early version of the 3rd RGCE amendment (DOF pending). (If you operate in a strategic bonded facility, run the test this week.)
- **November 27, 2026 — October trade balance**: INEGI publishes October exports and imports; first read on the effect of the Manzanillo closures.
- **Dec 1 → Jan 1, 2027 — MVE: transit, bonded warehouse and temporary**: Dec 1 transit; Dec 15 bonded warehouse; Jan 1 temporary imports.
- **December 31, 2026 — End of 24/5 customs at Manzanillo and of the non-treaty tariff decree**: The extended customs hours and the non-treaty tariff decree both expire. Don’t assume automatic renewal.
- **January 1, 2027 — Customs Law reform takes effect**: Automatic review and seizure for undervaluation against identical or similar goods; deposit if the gap is under 20%.
- **January 12, 2027 — USTR consultation for the USMCA review closes**: Formal channel for industry to bring origin and operations data to the 2027 review.
- **January 15, 2027 — MVE: definitive imports**: Last date on the calendar and the one that applies to most importers.

## What to do

- **Re-quote December and pre–Chinese New Year**: EAX fell to $6,006 and Eternity sees $5,000–6,000. Ask for a fresh quote, book 3–4 weeks ahead and don’t speculate with critical cargo.
- **Budget at FIX 18.6–18.8 with a margin**: FIX rose 4.0% in October and Banxico cut to 6.25%. Recost November and December duty, DTA and VAT.
- **Build your value file before January**: The customs reform takes effect Jan 1, 2027 with automatic undervaluation review. Document your transaction value.
- **Clear at Manzanillo Monday to Wednesday**: Customs 24/5 through Dec 31; cargo bunches on Thursdays and Fridays. Review storage from October’s closures before paying.
- **Confirm DODA or AVC before each crossing**: Nuevo Laredo suspended the AVC on Oct 8 with no end date; the new rule formalizes it. Keep both documents ready.

## Sources

- [Drewry — World Container Index (Oct 1, 8, 15, 22, 29; Nov 5, 2026)](https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry)
- [Carpamann — WCI Oct 29, 2026: $4,429; Shanghai–LA $7,514; Rotterdam $3,686; 62 Suez transits](https://www.cpm-scm.com/supply-chain-review/article-1694.html)
- [Container News — WCI rebound Oct 15, 2026](https://container-news.com/container-freight-rates-rebound-as-asia-europe-indexes-diverge/)
- [Daily Cargo News — WCI Oct 1, 2026 ($4,434)](https://www.thedcn.com.au/news/world-container-index-1-october-2026)
- [Info-Transportes / Eternity — EAX October 2026 ($6,006, −11.33%)](https://info-transportes.com.mx/puertos-y-terminales/flete-maritimo-de-asia-a-mexico-cae-11-33-en-octubre/)
- [Info-Transportes / Eternity — EAX September 2026 ($6,773, +5.6%)](https://info-transportes.com.mx/puertos-y-terminales/flete-maritimo-de-asia-a-mexico-sube-5-6-en-septiembre/)
- [T21 — Container volumes September and Jan–Sep 2026 by port (Semar)](https://t21.com.mx/movimiento-mensual-de-contenedores-pierde-terreno-en-septiembre-acumulado-crece/)
- [ASIPONA Manzanillo — September 2026 statistics](https://puertomanzanillo.com.mx/upl/sec/2026/estadisticas/RE-SEPTIEMBRE-2026.pdf)
- [Eddie Fonseca — Pacific up, Gulf down; empty exports at Manzanillo](https://www.efonseca.com/noticias/puertos-mexico-contenedores-septiembre-pacifico-golfo)
- [T21 — ITPAP September 2026 (Manzanillo 9:54:10)](https://t21.com.mx/puertos-reducen-42-el-costo-de-sus-demoras-para-el-autotransporte-pero-la-productividad-sigue-sin-encontrar-estabilidad/)
- [Revista TyT — Manzanillo reopens after Simón; 24 h customs (Oct 12)](https://www.tyt.com.mx/nota/reabren-puerto-de-manzanillo-para-embarcaciones-mayores-y-menores)
- [Transporte.com — Manzanillo closes for Trudy](https://transporte.com/puerto-manzanillo-trudy-cierre-semana-despues-simon/)
- [COPOMA — CCTT restores direct entry (Oct 16)](https://copoma.com.mx/comunicados/actualizacion-operativa-cctt-puerto-de-manzanillo-2)
- [ANAM — Release 108/2026: Manzanillo customs 24 h Oct 26–30](https://www.anam.gob.mx/comunicado-prensa-108-2026/)
- [Revista TyT — Manzanillo customs 24/5 Nov 9–Dec 31](https://www.tyt.com.mx/nota/aduana-de-manzanillo-operara-24-5-del-9-de-noviembre-al-cierre-del-ano)
- [Procupy / Air Cargo News — TAC Hong Kong–North America October 2026 ($7.64/kg; close $8.17)](https://news.procupy.com/shipping/hong-kong-us-airfreight-ends-october-at-8-17-kg-up-38-7-on-year)
- [Central de Noticias Tamaulipas — Customs temporarily suspends the crossing notice (Oct 8)](https://centralnoticiastamaulipas.com/2026/10/08/aduana-suspende-temporalmente-el-aviso-de-cruce-para-agilizar-transito-de-carga-en-nuevo-laredo/)
- [TCZ — World Trade Bridge lines and CBP waits (Oct 8)](https://tcznetworks.com/permits/news/world-trade-bridge-truck-lines-customs-pauses-avc)
- [Transporte.mx — Laredo: 24-hour pilot under evaluation (Oct 13)](https://transporte.mx/laredo-17000-19800-o-21000-camiones-al-dia-las-cifras-que-no-cuadran-y-el-piloto-para-operar-24-horas/)
- [CBP — World Trade Bridge Saturday pilot](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/laredo-port-entry-announces-extended-saturday-operational-hours-world)
- [DOF — Decree amending the Customs Law (Oct 23)](https://sidof.segob.gob.mx/notas/5802077)
- [El Economista — Senate passes customs reform (Oct 13)](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/sectorfinanciero/senado-avala-reforma-ley-aduanera-endurecer-combate-subvaluacion-huachicol-fiscal-20261013-838434.html)
- [SAT — 3rd RGCE 2026 amendment, second early version (Nov 5)](https://www.sat.gob.mx/minisitio/NormatividadRMFyRGCE/documentos2026/rgce/anticipadas/3aRMRGCEpara2026Segundaversion_anticipada.pdf)
- [ANAM — Release 92/2026: MVE phased by regime](https://www.anam.gob.mx/comunicado-de-prensa-92-2026/)
- [ANAM — Release 93/2026: textiles without automatic permit (Oct 5)](https://www.anam.gob.mx/comunicado-de-prensa-93-2026/)
- [DOF — Coatzacoalcos–Salina Cruz international transit decree (Oct 13)](https://sidof.segob.gob.mx/notas/docFuente/5800978)
- [Banxico — FIX (Sep 30 to Nov 6, 2026)](https://www.banxico.org.mx/tipcamb/tipCamMIAction.do)
- [El CEO — Peso posts eight losing weeks (Oct 30)](https://elceo.com/mercados/tipo-de-cambio-peso-dolar-hoy-30-de-octubre-de-2026/)
- [Banxico — Monetary policy announcement: 6.25% (Nov 5)](https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/anuncios-de-las-decisiones-de-politica-monetaria/%7b43236252-D06E-5231-27E8-058810A86A52%7d.pdf)
- [INEGI — Merchandise trade balance, September 2026 (Oct 27)](https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/comext_o/balcom_o2026_10.pdf)
- [Forbes México — Ebrard expects US answer before year-end (Oct 27)](https://forbes.com.mx/esperan-que-eu-responda-a-peticion-arancelaria-antes-de-fin-de-ano/)
- [Expansión — Ebrard sees few tariff changes after US elections (Nov 4)](https://expansion.mx/economia/2026/11/04/eb-rard-aranceles-mexico-t-mec-elecciones-eu)
- [Federal Register — USTR public consultation, 2027 USMCA review (Oct 5)](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/05/2026-20341/request-for-public-comments-and-notice-of-public-hearing-relating-to-the-operation-of-the-agreement)

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