# War in Iran: How the Conflict Is Driving Up Freight Costs in Mexico

> The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil-supply disruption in history. Here’s the real impact on freight rates, diesel, and cross-border trade in Mexico.

Source: https://www.freightspot.com/en/blog/guerra-iran-impacto-logistica-mexico-2026 · Updated: 2026-04-08 · Publisher: FreightSpot

Since attacks began in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, global energy markets haven’t found their footing. What looked like a regional conflict has turned into a **structural shock to the world economy** — and Mexico is not exempt.

## The Strait of Hormuz: the jugular of global oil

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most critical chokepoint in global energy trade. Roughly **20 million barrels a day** of crude and refined products pass through it, along with about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Since the conflict began, Iran has charged tolls of up to **$2 million per vessel** — or blocked passage outright — forcing shipowners onto alternative routes that are far longer and far more expensive.

> “The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

## Oil and diesel prices: the actual numbers

The price impact was immediate and blunt:

**Brent crude jumped 15%** in the first days of the conflict, hitting **$120 USD per barrel** — a level not seen since 2022. (Source: World Economic Forum, March 2026)

In the **United States**, diesel is up a cumulative **39%** since the conflict began. (Source: IRU)

In the **European Union**, the average diesel price reached **€2.12 per liter**, a 29% increase in a matter of weeks. (Source: IRU)

In **China**, prices rose 25% despite government caps. (Source: IRU)

## Why is diesel rising in Mexico if it doesn’t depend on the Persian Gulf?

Mexico is relatively energy-independent, but oil prices are set in global markets benchmarked to Brent and WTI. When Brent hits $120, refining costs and the diesel supply chain get more expensive everywhere — Mexico included.

On top of that, **AdBlue** — the additive required in Euro 6 trucks with SCR technology — is facing its own supply disruptions, since it’s produced from natural gas, whose global supply chain the conflict has also hit.

## Direct impact on freight rates

The IRU points out that **freight rates are not indexed to fuel price movements**, which puts unsustainable pressure on transport operators. That pressure eventually shows up as:

**Higher fuel surcharges** on air and ocean freight

**Trucking rate increases**, especially on Mexico–U.S. cross-border lanes

**Longer transit times** as vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope

**More volatile quotes** — carriers are writing price-variation clauses into short-term contracts

## What can Mexican importers do right now?

**Pull volume purchases forward** before the next round of increases — in volatile markets, whoever buys early wins.

**Review your freight contracts** and understand exactly which surcharge clauses are in effect.

**Diversify suppliers and origins** to reduce exposure to routes that transit the Persian Gulf.

**Consolidate cargo** — when rates are high, well-managed LCL can beat frequent partial shipments on cost.

**Talk to your freight forwarder** — the picture changes week to week, and real-time information is essential.

## The medium-term outlook

> “Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, the energy effects would be felt at least through the end of 2026.” — World Economic Forum, March 2026

Repairing infrastructure, restarting production sites, and realigning tanker capacity takes months. Global trade is heading into a period of higher costs and higher uncertainty, and Mexico — an economy that both exports and imports heavily — sits squarely in the middle of that impact.

At FreightSpot we’re tracking these developments closely to help our customers make informed decisions in real time.

### Sources

IRU — International Road Transport Union, March 2026

World Economic Forum — March 2026

The Guardian — April 2026

IEA — International Energy Agency

### S h a r e A r t i c l e

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